For the Fans

MNS prediction, my prediction, and breaking down Minnesota by the numbers

Posted by: Tom Young

Tuesday, November 3, 2009 6:35 AM

After Illinois’ most impressive game of the year, is there a chance they can put together a winning streak? A bowl game is unlikely, but it would be nice to at least finish strong. If the Illini play like they did against Michigan, I see 5-7 (Cincinnati will not let us beat them). If the combination of LeShoure and Ford at runningback continues to remain strong, then the offense will continue to pile on points. The defense continues to improve, but will they be able to apply pressure on the quarterback again, or will they look like they did the first seven games of the season? Got to wait until Saturday to find out.

NCAA 10 on the XBOX 360

ILLINOIS 31 MINNESOTA 28

This game was close the whole way, with both offenses clicking at one point or another. Neither team had a lead bigger than seven, so it was your classic back and forth battle. The game ended when K Matt Ellar hit a 46 yard field goal with no time left right when it looked like OT was inevitable.

QB Juice Williams went 25-37 for 324 yards with 2 touchdowns and 1 interception. His INT was the only turnover of the game. RB Mikel LeShoure didn’t run all that great. He ran 26 times for only 90 yards, but he did have two touchdowns. Both WR Arrelious Benn and WR A.J. Jenkins each caught a touchdown pass.

Defensively, LB Russell Ellington led the way with 9 tackles, and DL Sirod Williams and DL Corey Liuget each had two sacks.

For Minnesota, QB Adam Weber had an interesting day. He threw for under 50% (17-38 for 224 yards), but he was able to rack up 2 TD passes along with no picks. Who would pick up the slack with WR Eric Decker out for the year? Look out for WR Ben Kuznia. He had nine receptions for 98 yards and caught both TD passes.

My Prediction

ILLINOIS 28 MINNESOTA 21

How will Illinois respond after a huge win against Michigan? Here’s hoping they respond well. Minnesota might have a 5-4 record, but looking at how they’ve gotten there it is a very soft 5-4. Their best win is Michigan State at home, where they still allowed 34 points. They barely squeaked by Syracuse 23-20, and the Orangeman were using a quarterback who spent the last three years playing point guard in basketball. They only beat Air Force 20-13. Even thought they only allowed 13 points, they gave up over 250 rushing yards. Remember when Cal running back Jahvid Best was on the short Heisman Trophy list? It was because of his game at Minnesota back in September when he scored all five of the Bear’s touchdowns in a 35-21 win. He ran for 121 yards averaging 5.0 a carry.

Let’s look at what Minnesota’s defense has allowed to the other team’s leading rusher dating back to the Air Force game.

Air Force QB Asher Clark – 90 yards on 12 carries (7.5 ypc)

Cal RB Javhid Best – 26 carries for 131 yards and 5 TD’s (5.0 ypc)

N’Western RB Arby Fields – 9 carries for 43 yards and 1 TD (4.8 ypc)

Wisconsin RB John Clay – 32 carries for 184 yards and 3 TD’s (5.8 ypc)

Penn St. RB Evan Royster – 23 carries for 137 yards (6.0 ypc)

Ohio St. RB Terrelle Pryor – 15 carries for 104 yards (6.9 ypc)

Michigan St. WR Keshawn Martin – 1 carry for 84 yards and a TD (84.0 ypc)

On average, Minnesota allows 171.9 yards per game on the ground. With the way Mikel LeShoure and Jason Ford ran the ball on Saturday, there’s a decent chance that they can run wild again against the Golden Gophers. Let’s hope we keep the same gameplan that we used against Michigan.

Offensively, Minnesota hasn’t passed the ball as well as last year. I figured this team would be tough with Adam Weber throwing the Eric Decker. Even though those two guys have made their share of connections, Weber has had issues with interceptions. In fact, he’s thrown more picks than TDs (11 TDs, 12 INTs). On top of that, Decker is out for the season. He torn some ligaments in his left foot and had to have season ending surgery. Without him, Minnesota’s receiving corps takes a massive hit, and this should help out the Illini coverage team.

If Minnesota is unable to throw successfully, they don’t have much of a running game to rely on. Gone are the days when Laurence Maroney, Marion Barber III and Gary Russell struck fear in their opponents. Nowadays, its Duane Bennett and DeLeon Eskridge barely average more than four yards a carry. If the Illini front four can continue to get pressure up front like they did in the second half against Michigan, Minnesota wills struggle and the offense will have ample chances to score points and pick up their first road win of the season.

Time to update the prediction standings. Everyone picked Michigan to win, except for the XBOX. Looks like things are getting tight again.

NAME W L RSDT*

chrispatton33 (MICH 26-13) 4 4 122

Tom Young (MICH 27-17) 4 4 137

Jshaw (MICH 32-10) 4 4 163

NCAA 10 (ILL 17-10) 4 4 178

Jweeks (MICH 28-14) 4 4 196

dave1956 (MICH40-14) 4 2 127

Combatmedic44 (MICH 45-3) 4 2 135

Dropintheknowledge (DNP) 0 1 20

kfj (DNP) 0 1 41

*Real Score Difference Total

Time to hear from you again. Do you think Illinois can ride the momentum, or was Saturday just a fluke? Minnesota is an early six-point favorite. Let’s hope things turn around for the Illini so they can finish this season on a strong note.

I-L-L...

* - All stats can be found on IlliniHQ.com - *

Comments

Like you Tom I found a glimmer of hope of finishing with 5 wins.

Illinois 31 Minnesota 17

If we run 50 times again thats a great sign for us. I hope the defense rallies aroudn the goalline stand keeps us close while our offense slowly finds its rythm again. Its obvious Juice is best when he and the backs are running the ball as to set up his long passes. Heres hoping the coaching staff realizes that. If not screw you Guenther its time to fire Zook.

Posted by Jshaw on November 3, 2009 at 8:29 AM

well, the optimism is rolling outta me like squeezing a tube of toothpate... MINTY!!!

Ill 28

Minnesota 21

I think schultz figured out that we run the ball to set up the pass... finally. we will run it down their throats and have a few passes to benn that will get our confidence going.

Posted by jweeks on November 3, 2009 at 11:14 AM

I hate the Gophers with a passion. That's what I get for being a rabid Badgers fan. The problem is that I think Minnesota is more of a complete team. I think this game is going to be close. Illinois finally got something going in the Michigan game and they will fare better than the past games, but it's going to be really close. I'm gonna go with...

Gophers 24 Illini 21 in OT.

Posted by combatmedic44 on November 3, 2009 at 4:59 PM

I can't decide on the game. Since Illinois loses when I pick them to win and they won when everybody picked them to lose, I'll go with Minnesota 31, Illinois 29.

Posted by chrispatton33 on November 6, 2009 at 1:23 PM