Moline's Musings
Big Ten Soccer Preview
Posted by: Brian Moline
Monday, August 10, 2009 3:11 PM
With the Illinois soccer team opening up their season with an exhibition game this Friday, it's about time to make some predictions for the upcoming season. As you might recall last year, the Illini overcame a sluggish Big Ten season to make a run to the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament. There they ran into the buzzsaw known as the North Carolina Tarheels, who went on to win the championship. Just to refresh your memory, here's how the Big Ten stacked up in 2008:
|--------CONFERENCE--------| |---------OVERALL----------|
STANDINGS W- L- T Pts Pct GF GA W- L- T Pts Pct GF GA
--------- -- -- - --- --- -- -- -- -- - --- --- -- --
MINN................ 8- 2- 0 24 .800 11 5 22- 4- 0 66 .846 43 12
PSU................. 8- 2- 0 24 .800 17 4 16- 8- 0 48 .667 40 25
PUR................. 5- 3- 2 17 .600 11 7 12- 7- 3 39 .614 32 20
MSU................. 5- 4- 1 16 .550 18 11 14- 7- 3 45 .646 48 20
ILL................. 5- 5- 0 15 .500 9 7 12- 9- 2 38 .565 24 19
NU.................. 5- 5- 0 15 .500 8 11 10- 9- 1 31 .525 26 29
OSU................. 5- 5- 0 15 .500 11 16 8-10- 2 26 .450 27 33
IOWA................ 3- 6- 1 10 .350 10 14 9-11- 1 28 .452 28 24
IND................. 3- 6- 1 10 .350 5 8 8-10- 1 25 .447 24 23
WIS................. 3- 7- 0 9 .300 8 17 9- 9- 1 28 .500 29 25
MICH................ 1- 6- 3 6 .250 5 13 4-10- 5 17 .342 20 32
Despite being listed second in the standings, Penn State was actually the regular season champion, as
they defeated the Golden Gophers in State College. The Nittany Lions then vanquished the Gophers
again in the finals of the Big Ten Tournament in Iowa City. That was the last Big Ten Soccer Tournament
in the forseeable future, as the contract on the event expired and the coaches could not agree on a format
for the event. As a result, Big Ten teams will have a lighter schedule leading into the NCAA Tournament
in 2009.
Here's how I see the conference stacking up this season. After each team, you'll see the number of returning
starters and starters lost in parenthesis. For example: Illinois (8/3). Let's get to the picks:
1. Penn State (9/2). Here's all you need to know about Penn State soccer. After a regular season and
Big Ten Tournament title, the Nittany Lions are looking at 2009 as a bounceback season. Why? Well, their
16 wins was the fewest for the program since 1997. Plus, Penn State was bounced from the NCAA Tournament
by Rutgers. Penn State returns an All-American in goal (Alyssa Naeher) and on the front line (Katie Schoepfer),
and brings in an extremely talented freshman class. Until someone proves otherwise, the Nittany Lions are
the team to beat.
2. Illinois (8/3). Regular readers may remember that I have predicted a 13-3-2 season for Illinois soccer. In
most conferences, that would be good enough for a first place finish, but not in the Big Ten with Penn State looking
strong. If the Illini hosted the Nittany Lions in 2009, I would be tempted to push the Illini to the top. However,
Illinois must travel to Happy Valley in late October, where they have yet to win (or tie). There are two keys for the
Illini in 2009. First, the offense must be more consistent. Illinois scored just 24 goals in 23 regular season games
last season. I see the offense stepping up a bit in 2009, with two starting forwards (Chichi Nweke and Jordan
Hillbrands) returning, plus two talented newcomers (Shayla Mutz and Nicki Read) battling for playing time. The
second key is filling two starting spots on defense. It may take a few games, but that has been Janet Rayfield's
specialty throughout her tenure at Illinois. She is able to find players who can step into a defensive role when
needed. It also helps to have junior captain Danielle Kot back there to run the show.
3. Michigan State (10/1). The Spartans had their best season in a while in 2008, and return ten of eleven starters.
The deciding factor in putting MSU behind Illinois in the standings is that Sparty has to come to Champaign during
the regular season, where they lost 3-0 last year. The Spartans are led by reigning Big Ten Offensive Player of the
Year and Freshman of the year Laura Heyboer, who tallied 21 goals a year ago. MSU was a young team last year,
prone to lapses on defense. With another year of experience, look for this crew to improve upon last year's fourth
place finish.
4. Purdue (10/1). This prediction is a bit misleading. Purdue finished third a season ago in the Big Ten, and I think
they will be improved in 2009. So why will they drop back in the conference standings? Simply because the teams
I'm picking ahead of them will also be improved. The Boilermakers missed out on the NCAA Tournament a season
ago because of a lackluster nonconference schedule. Head coach Rob Klatte has made sure that won't happen
again. The Boilers will face national powers Texas A&M and Stanford this fall, plus strong midmajor Milwaukee.
Despite a lower conference finish, the Boilers will be back in the field of 64 this fall.
5. Ohio State (8/3). Perhaps the team with the most to prove in 2009, as the Buckeyes missed the NCAA Tournament
despite having a talented roster. Head coach Lori Walker returns most of her firepower from last year, including
Paige Maxwell, who was a member of the Big Ten All-Freshman team. But defense is where the Buckeyes must
improve, as their 16 goals allowed in Big Ten play were the second most allowed behind last place Michigan, and
their 33 goals allowed in all games were last in the conference. Returning goalkeeper Lauren Robertson should be
a contender for all-conference honors if the defenders in front of her continue to improve.
6. Minnesota (6/5). The Golden Gophers graduated eight seniors from last year's Big Ten co-championship
squad. Not to take anything away from last year's 22-4 squad that advanced to the Sweet 16, but the Gophers had
a schedule (especially non-conference) that could charitably be called less than challenging. This year's schedule
looks a bit tougher with SEC opponents Tennessee and Georgia on the non-conference slate, along with Milwaukee,
who appears to be trying to become a de facto Big Ten conference member with seven Big Ten opponents on
their non-conference schedule, plus an exhibition game against Michigan State.
7. Indiana (11/0). The Hoosiers may be the toughest team to predict in the Big Ten this year. On the plus side,
they return all eleven starters from a season ago. On the minus side, those eleven starters combined to score
just five goals in ten conference games, the fewest in the league. In 2007, this was an NCAA tournament team
that appeared to be on the rise. Last season, the Hoosiers missed out on the Big Ten Tournament in a tiebreaker
with Iowa after finishing in a tie for 8th place. Other than a home game against SEC power Florida, there will be
plenty of opportunities for Mick Lyon and the Hoosiers to feast on weak non-conference competition.
8. Wisconsin (8/3). The Badgers are young, but very talented. They have only four seniors on their roster under
third-year head coach Paula Wilkins. Wilkins came to a down-and-out Wisconsin program after leading Penn State
to national prominance. The Badgers made strides last year, finishing with a 9-9-1 overall record, but fading down
the stretch to miss out on the final Big Ten Tournament with a tenth place league finish. This will be the year the
Badgers start to turn the corner. They'll take their lumps in the season opener at Notre Dame, but should be able
to learn from it. Watch out when some of the eleven (yes, eleven) freshmen on the roster start to get experience.
9. Michigan (7/4). Michigan is another program rebuilding quickly under second-year head coach Greg Ryan. The
Wolverines had problem scoring last season, putting in just 20 goals in 19 games, and just one player had more
than two goals. Fortunately for Ryan, that player (Amanda Bowery) returns for the Maize and Blue. In addition, the
Wolverines have put together a very talented six-player recruiting class in 2009. Ryan had his issues as the US
Women's National Team coach, but he's shown he can put together a winner at the college level. There will be
baby steps this season, but watch out for Michigan in 2010.
10. Northwestern (7/4). The Wildcats are coming off their best season since 2004 under head coach Stephanie
Erickson. They have seven starters returning after finishing in a tie for fifth in the Big Ten last year. So, why am I
picking them to finish tenth? Frankly, most teams in the conference look to be improved this year, but I think the
Wildcats will take a slight step back after losing two of their three leading scorers (Amanda Hoffman and Jenny
Dunn).
11. Iowa (9/2). Iowa is another team that could be victimized by the improvement around the conference as a
whole. The Hawkeyes return nine starters from a team that qualified for the Big Ten Tournament for the second
straight year. They outscored their opponents 28-24 last season, but there are a couple of red flags. The Hawkeyes
were outshot on the season 273-217, and their opponents put a higher percentage of those shots on goal (.484 to
.442). A player to watch for Iowa this year and for the next three seasons is freshman forward Jade Grimm, who
was a two-time Iowa Player of the Year in high school.
For a different take on women's soccer, check out the preseason rankings from Top Drawer Soccer. They have
Illinois ranked 22nd in the country, and third in the Big Ten behind Penn State and Michigan State. The shocker
here is that Top Drawer has Michigan in the NCAA Tournament. Personally, I think that will have to wait a year.
Thanks for reading.
bmoline@wdws.com
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