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Why Big Brown is a bad bet

Posted by: Tony Bleill

Friday, May 2, 2008 4:11 PM

For those of us who are horse racing enthusiasts, this week is as good as it gets (although Breeders' Cup week runs a close second). It is the culmination of months of observations, opinions and homework. It's Kentucky Derby week, a grand time to discover if your thoughts from the last several months of prep races adds up to a good opinion in the sport's biggest race.

Before we get to some Derby thoughts, a quick reminder: The Brick House OTB is accepting Derby bets today and Saturday, but keep one thing in mind. The OTB is closing temporarily at the close of business on Sunday. So if you bet the race and head home to watch it on TV, remember to head back to the OTB later Saturday or sometime Sunday to cash your ticket, or else you'll have to drive to the OTB in Normal to cash. In that vein, the C-U OTB hasn't made an announcement yet about where it will re-open, but we've heard rumors that it might end up at the Park Inn in Urbana.

As for the Derby, I'm taking a stand against the favorite, Big Brown. His trainer Rick Dutrow, his jockey Kent Desormeaux and numerous astute handicappers -- many of whom I have great respect for -- have lauded Big Brown as one of the best 3-year-olds we've seen in years. One heady soul compared him to Secretariat.

While I, too, have great respect for Big Brown's natural talent -- and I believe he can win the Kentucky Derby -- I think he's a terrible bet at odds around 3-1. Here's why:

--He lacks experience, a key factor in a 20-horse field. He's had three career starts, and no horse since 1915 has won the Kentucky Derby with fewer than four.

--He was headstrong through swift fractions in his last race, the Florida Derby, including a 22.3 first quarter. If he reacts the same way on Saturday, he'll be cooked on the front end.

--He wandered to the rail in the stretch of the Florida Derby, never a good sign, and often one that means a horse is sore or fatigued.

--Big Brown's career has been plagued by quarter cracks, common ailments in a horse's hoof wall. They can recur at any time, and they're especially susceptible on hard tracks. Chruchill Downs' dirt course on Derby Day is notoriously hard and fast.

--Big Brown's competition has been light, to say the least. In his second start, he beat four rivals in an off-the-turf allowance race at Gulfstream. Sorry, but beating four outclassed opponents in an off-the-turfer means nothing.

--He beat nothing in the Florida Derby. The only Florida Derby runner who'll be in the Kentucky Derby is 20-1 shot Smooth Air. The top 3-year-olds in Florida had gone north by the time they ran the Florida Derby on March 29.

--Dutrow and Desormeaux are incredibly confident, and you can bank on Big Brown getting an overconfident ride from his jockey, especially from the No. 20 post position. With so much speed to his inside, Desormeaux must either gun to the lead or let the early speed clear him, which could create two problems: It would mean Big Brown could receive dirt in his face for the first time (and possibly resent it), or he could be rank in the early stages. Either way, it's a bad thing. And if Desormeaux thinks he can go 5-wide around both turns and still win, he's likely mistaken. Overconfident rides have proven costly for many jocks in the past -- remember Patrick Valenzuela on Arazi in 1992 and Gary Stevens on Point Given in 2001?

Again, Big Brown might be good enough to overcome all of that. But do you want to take 3-1 odds on the proposition? I don't. I'm going with Colonel John, but my main goal is to get alive to as many horses as possible in the Pick 3 and Pick 4. I'll also be using Gayego, Denis of Cork, Adriano, Monba and Court Vision. I'm still pondering Pyro and Z Fortune.

--I usually don't go wild betting on the Derby. There are better money-making opportunities elsewhere, but one thing I love to play is Derby props. Much like the Super Bowl, bookmakers offer a ton of proposition bets, and some of them are offbeat, to say the least. Here are two that I'm playing, so you can root for me or against me:

-How long will the performance of "My Old Kentucky Home" be? The over/under is 3 minutes.
I took the under. Here's where my video library of every Kentucky Derby TV broadcast since 1992 comes in handy. Each year, the University of Louisville marching band plays the song, and last year it took 1 minute, 39 seconds, just about the same time it always does. Unless the band director has a seizure in the middle of the song, I'm planning to cash this one.

-Will George Steinbrenner be at the Derby and shown on NBC? If you want to bet yes, you can win $250 on a $100 bet. If you bet 'no', then you have to wager $350 to win $100. I took 'no.' As any baseball fan knows, Steinbrenner is rarely seen in public these days. Plus, he doesn't have a reason to show up at the Derby this year. His top hope, Majestic Warrior, isn't in the race after a mediocre spring. The last time Steinbrenner attended a Derby was when his Bellamy Road was the favorite in 2005. If he doesn't have a horse in the race, he doesn't go.