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The winner of the Kentucky Derby is ...

Posted by: Tony Bleill

Friday, May 1, 2009 1:38 PM

Many horseplayers regard the Kentucky Derby as one of the best wagering opportunities of the year. Most often, there's a full field of 20 betting interests, meaning large payoffs are more likely to occur than, say, during a six-horse field on a Wednesday at Aqueduct.

I've never subscribed to that theory. The Derby presents such a unique set of circumstances that having confidence in a handicapping selection is nearly impossible. There are far more variables in the Derby than in any other race on the calendar. There's a 20-horse field, the largest field in North America all season. That places a premium on luck; a 20-horse field is a recipe for bumping, getting shut off, etc. It's common sense: racing luck will be a greater factor in a 20-horse field than a 10-horse field.

Then there's the fact that all of the Derby horses will be running 1 1/4 miles for the first time. Who'll handle it? And some of those 20 horses have never even raced on a dirt surface, instead choosing to prep on synthetic surfaces. Add it all up, and the Derby becomes a giant crapshoot, and for that reason I rarely find myself with a strong conviction on the chances of any horse.

This year, however, there's a horse I particularly like: Dunkirk.

He is lightly raced, having started just three times, and that's a significant hurdle to overcome. But I also believe strongly that Dunkirk is the most talented horse in the field, and if he's on top of his game Saturday, he'll win the 135th Derby. Most important, he should provide good value at the windows. He's 4-1 in the morning line, but I'd expect him to go off a tad bit higher than that. In Friday's early wagering, Dunkirk was at 8-1.

I'll bet him to win and use him underneath in a few exactas, in case he runs second. Pioneerof the Nile, I Want Revenge and Friesan Fire are among the horses that I'll use on top of Dunkirk in exactas.

Good luck with your selections. Whether you win or lose, Derby Day is one of the most exciting days of the year, and that's one thing handicappers can certainly agree upon.