Tuesday, November 24, 2009 East Central Illinois

Expect flood of campaign ads in January

By Tom Kacich
Wednesday, November 4, 2009 7:00 AM CDT

Get ready for wall-to-wall political advertising on Illinois radio and television stations in January. The unusual number of people running for seven statewide offices this winter – 60 candidates – guarantees at least that the normally slow post-Christmas advertising market should be pretty hot. That will apply even if some of the candidates drop out, as expected, between now and the Feb. 2 primary election.

It also guarantees a lot of democracy in a compacted campaign season.

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"Quantity doesn't always mean quality," said former Gov. Jim Edgar, now a distinguished fellow at the University of Illinois, "but at least there's a choice. And from what I can tell there are some pretty good people running for every office, so we should be able to come up with some good people."

Many of the statewide candidates, he noted, are state senators and representatives "who are frustrated being a legislator. This brings them a chance to move up the ladder, and you don't get those opportunities too often."

The dozens of candidates are more than twice the sum in the two past off-year (non-presidential) elections in Illinois: 25 in 2006 and 28 in 2002.

The only time since 1922 there was a greater number of candidates, according to research by University of Illinois political scientist Brian Gaines, was in the 1932 primary, when there was an off-the-charts 147 hopefuls for eight statewide offices.

Part of the reason for the multitude of candidates this time is that only two true incumbents – Attorney General Lisa Madigan and Secretary of State Jesse White – are running (Gov. Pat Quinn became governor only because his predecessor was impeached). Thus most candidates enter their campaigns on relatively equal footing, in terms of name recognition and money.

One reason for the large number of Republican statewide candidates – 27 – is that there are no GOP incumbents. Another is that members of the GOP believe this will be a growth year for their party, following the ethical problems of the Blagojevich administration and unrest nationally.

"I think that ambitious Republicans, not just in Illinois but around the country, are feeling that this might be a good opportunity to get a favorable environment," Gaines said.

Edgar agreed. "I think there's the feeling that this year is our chance," he said. "I think Republicans are looking at these offices more than they might have."

That doesn't mean the former governor is enthusiastic about the Illinois primary, which used to be in late March and before that was in April.

"The early primary is a bad thing," he said. "I would rather have fewer candidates and a late primary. I think that's a better trade-off.

"I just think the early primary will keep a lot of people from focusing. In January, all you're going to have is a barrage of television commercials."

And all those candidates, said Edgar, might mean that marginal candidates could be chosen to represent their parties in the general election.

"One of the negatives with so many candidates is that, with the Republican gubernatorial race for example, less than 30 percent of the vote could make you the nominee. That may not necessarily mean that you're representing the mainstream of the party. And if they're not in the mainstream of the party, they could be in trouble in the general election."

Here's what the individual statewide races look like now:

– U.S. Senate – eight Republicans, seven Democrats and one Green Party candidate for the seat held by Sen. Roland Burris, who was appointed by Blagojevich, and will not run for a full term;

– Governor – seven Republicans, four Democrats and two Greens for the office now held by Quinn;

– Lieutenant governor – six Republicans, six Democrats and one Green for the office that is vacant;

– Attorney general – one Republican, one Green and one Democrat, the virtually unbeatable Madigan;

– Secretary of state – one Republican, one Green and one Democrat, the virtually unbeatable White;

– Comptroller – three Republicans, three Democrats and one Green for an office held by Dan Hynes, a Democrat running for governor;

– Treasurer – one Republican, three Democrats and one Green for the office held by Alexi Giannoulias, a Democrat running for U.S. Senate.

Local record holders. By running again, Republican Jan Miller and Democrat Bernadine Stake have extended their record for most consecutive years as committeemen in the same Champaign County precinct. February's primary will be the 16th consecutive election that Miller and Stake have run to represent their parties in the central Urbana precinct, Cunningham 10.

The previous record, according to Champaign County Clerk Mark Shelden, was held by Leo Pfeffer (Democrat) and Otis Karr (Republican) in the Scott Bondville precinct in the 1950s. They served 13 two-year terms.

Miller, 56, has been committeeman since 1978. He's soldiered on, despite the precinct becoming overwhelmingly Democrat since the 1950s. Last year, for example, Barack Obama won the precinct with 86 percent to 10 percent for John McCain.

"It's getting tough. It was a struggle for me to find 10 people to sign my candidate petitions this time," Miller joked. "Four of them were in my own household."

Stake has been committeeman since 1980.

Miller said he and Stake are good neighbors. "She just lives four houses away from me," he said. "We get along just fine."

They even worked together to keep a statute of Abraham Lincoln in Carle Park rather than move it to the Champaign County Courthouse, he said.

Tom Kacich is a News-Gazette editor and columnist. His column appears on Wednesdays and Sundays. He can be reached at 351-5221 or at kacich<@>news-gazette.com.

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